by paleocon on 02/08/08, 12:21 am
Talk show hosts around DC seem to be taking up the term “suicide voters” to refer to conservatives who will not support McCain. That is offensive on so many levels that I hardly know where to start. But, I shall try and exert myself to remain calm and collected in the face of vitriol and personal insults.
First, the idea is that we are holding true to a conviction seems to escape these hosts. Or perhaps it is the fact that since they so readily abandoned their convictions that they can only impugn the motives of us who cannot flip-flop on core principles so easily. Therefore, we must be “childish.”
Secondly, there is the “lesser or two evils.” But, here they refuse to acknowledge that rational people don’t agree with them that McCain is actually the lesser of two evils. Therefore, since we don’t agree with them, we must be irrational or “childish.”
The simple fact is that McCain shamefully attacked political speech recently. He may, on one side of the coin, support the war on terror, but, on the other side of the same coin, he undermines the war when he demands closing Gitmo and giving illegal combatant terrorists due process rights in American courts. We didn’t do this with German POWs in WW2 but now he demands we give it to illegal combatants! What kind of legal reasoning is this?
He clearly has no understanding of capitalism. His quote, posted on this forum, about not supporting “unfettered capitalism” is as frightening as his views on free speech.
Then, there is the issue of judges. Except that McCain thinks Ailito is “too conservative.” If Ailito is too conservative, can we reasonably expect a true conservative to be nominated? We would be lucky to get a Souter out of McCain. Hoping for a Roberts or Thomas or Scalia is nothing more than a flight of fancy.
Finally, there is his unflagging support for amnesty for 20 million or more illegal aliens. Frankly, I see the democrats making significant gains in the House and Senate next year. Hoping to get even 40 conservative Senators to filibuster another go at “McCain/Kennedy” is highly optimistic. Any president, McCain, Obama or Clinton, is very likely to have a high probability of getting amnesty through congress. Once that is done, McCain may well be the last “republican” elected for a very long time. 20 million new votes will swamp the polls voting for the people who promise them the most. And those people will be democrats. The voting of conservatives will be so diluted by 20 million new victim voters that we may never be able to balance the political scales again. I am not saying this MUST happen; only that it is more likely to happen now than when we had a chance of defeating McCain.
These same hosts keep saying that conservatives will have to bring pressure against McCain once he is in office. Pray tell, how we can do that since once he is elected he has no further need of conservatives. McCain is almost certainly a one-shot, one-term president. He will be completely free of any ability of anyone to influence him. Besides, it McCain has demonstrated his continued disdain and uncompromising tone toward conservatives. He routinely vilifies us at every chance. Why in the world would he be inclined to change once elected?
Finally, I am virtually certain McCain cannot win in the general election. The GOP elite has once again demanded that we nominate an unelectable candidate. It is very simple math when you think about it.
In 2004 Bush took 62 million votes to 59 million for John Kerry. That is a difference of 3 million votes. But, a few thousand or even a few hundred votes in some states could have flipped certain states to Kerry.
Here comes the ugly math. Well, ugly for McCain and the GOP elite if they weren’t so arrogant to look at facts. Rush Limbaugh has an audience of roughly 30 million regular listeners. If ½ of Rush’s audience are core conservatives who are normally very likely to vote, that means 15 million core GOP voters are Rush fans. That is ¼ of the total votes Bush got in 2004.
If 10% of Rush’s audience is so disaffected with the GOP that they will not vote then the GOP just lost 1.5 million votes. That is ½ of the margin of victory in the last election! 1.5 million votes could flip half a dozen states from red to blue.
Now suppose that McCain turns on the charm. (Yeah, right, like that will happen. McCain and charm? Not likely!) If McCain manages to swing 90% of those 1.5 million disaffected voters back to him he still loses. That is right. Even if McCain convinces 90% of 1.5 million disaffected Rush fans to vote for him he still loses. Why? Because the 10% he doesn’t get is 150,000 and that number, could still swing 2 to 10 states. It is not hard to imagine McCain failing to take Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri, and Ohio in the next go around. These were either Huckabee states or very close states in 2004. Simple math indicates that McCain will go down in flames because he cannot take 100% of the conservative base.
Obama or Clinton will be the next president of the United States. One of them may very well be the first Secretary General too.
I WILL NEVER VOTE FOR JOHN MCCAIN!
He has all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire.
"The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of the blessings. The inherent blessing of socialism is the equal sharing of misery."
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http://www.myspace.com/paleocon)