watcher wrote:My son told me about how the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is spreading out across the country to start a suppression of the citizens.

Well if they are suppressing citizens it means that unrest is a problem and they are hoping to nip it in the bud.  But, I assumed there were large numbers of IRG throughout the nation already.  

watcher wrote:The Israelis are pretty savvy when it comes to survival. I would make a bet that they have a few things that we do not know about.

I suspect there are lots of things about Israel we don't know. But, I suspect the current inventory of their air force is not a big mystery since we sell them most of the jets and parts.  

watcher wrote:As far as their firepower I agree there is no room for error and there is always error. That is why I think that the US will not be able to stand down on this.  No matter how it starts Iran has to be neutralized for good. Anything short only delays the use of nuclear weapons later. How this can be done without causing major loss of life is the problem. When you don’t have a lot of fighters you cannot be as neat with your hits. Fast and heavy equals more people die.

Something I have wondered about and haven’t taken the time to check into is what happened to all of Iraq’s warplanes that they flew to Iran before we invaded in 2003. They are obliviously old but if Iran still has them and they can still fly them that is more planes in their favor.

I am not sure what the US will do.  I am pretty sure the Israelis will view Obama as an obstacle if not an adversary should they wait until he is in power to attack.  

But, I just don't know what Bush will do if Israel attacks between November and January.  He is hard to predict.  He will be in full "legacy building mode" and won't want the war to expand while he is still in office.  

As for the Iraqi planes that fled to Iran during the gulf war, it apears that only about 6 of them are "in service."  Iran has planes but they are an odd mix of very old American stuff and some French, Russian, Chinese and Pakistani aircraft to supplement a few "home built" aircraft.  

I suspect most Iranian aircraft will be hiding in bunkers if there is a shooting match.  Most of their stuff is nearly as old as Moses and the avionics would be nearly useless in today's environment.  

I don't think their airforce is a major concern but their SAM defenses could be a problem, especially once they get all this new Russian gear online.  But, this would tend to make me think that the Israeli's would strike before that time as the job only gets more difficult if they wait.

Add this to the equation of who, when and if there will be an attack on Iran.
The unrest inside Iran is mounting and protests continue despite the risks. The IRGC is activity arresting the Iranian people but it does not appear to be keeping them quite. This article has some video connected to it from inside Iran.

“Although Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's tenure has seen a marked crackdown on every sector of society, the ayatollahs have failed to terrorize the opposition into submission.”

“The driving force of the ayatollahs' nuclear weapons campaign and terrorism export — the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) — is first and foremost tasked with protecting the regime from Iran's democratic opposition. This overriding duty (as stipulated many times by its leadership) is inherent in the true translation of IRGC — "Guardians of the Islamic Revolution." In September, IRGC's top Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari stressed that the Corps' "main responsibility" was to fight against "internal threats."


Another Mass Killing in Iran: An Affront to Human Dignity Tuesday, July 29, 2008 By Alireza Jafarzadeh
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,393882,00.html

I agree with Eyas's first post back in page 1. I believe, though, that the Iranians are going to take their sweet time developing their nuclear weapons ---about two generations, the time it will take the Moors to be a majority in Europe.

McCain has already said he would.  He sang it.  

Yeah. Bomb Iran! ba ba ba ba bomb Iran!!

We have to bomb Iran's nuclear facilites. If iran gets a nuke, then everything we have done for the last 20 years wont matter. Iran will be in control.