Here is an excellent assessment of the fight between Clinton and Obama.  I love the analogy of a Democratic defeat in November being compared to Johnson losing to Goldwater; although McCain is far to the left of Goldwater.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/26/opinion/26herbert.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin

I think the writer's take on Clinton is pretty right on, and it makes you wonder if Clinton is setting up Obama for a November loss; so she can run again in 4 years.

I'd say it is an interesting assessment of the current dilemma in the Democrat primary.  Far more balanced than I would have ever expected from the NYT!  

The one thing that many people seem to apprehend but not comprehend is that the Democratic nomination has been rigged so that the actual voters will not select the nominee.  A full 20% of all delegates are appointed “Super Delegates” and not “earned” through the vote or caucus process.  I did the math in an earlier topic found here:  updated-dem-delegate-count-does-matter-t884.html#p5089.

The most important thing to remember about the Democrat’s primary process is this.  Nearly 20% of all convention delegates are appointed by the party and not selected by voters. A candidate would have to take 62.22% of all elected delegates to clinch the nomination without any “super delegate” votes. Also interesting is the fact that a candidate could win as few as 1230 elected delegates and still become the nominee if all the “super delegates” supported that candidate. So a candidate could theoretically win as few as 37.81% of the elected delegates and still become the Democrat nominee.

Clearly, in a tight two-way race, neither Democrat candidate is going to sweep 62% of all delegates.  Therefore, it a tight race, it is very likely that conventions will start with no clear-cut nominee and will require some dealing on the floor of the convention.  

The Dems have set up this process and they are getting bitten in the rear end by it.  The basic problem is that the Democrat party is a collection of single interest groups with relatively little in common with other single interest groups.  This year, the choice of Dem votes is to be seen as a racist (if they don’t vote for Obama) or a sexist (if they don’t vote for Clinton).  They have set up their own perfect storm.  And Howard Dean is livid about the situation.  

Bob Herbert’s column does not address this issue directly.  He does accurately note that Obama has finally been exposed as something other than a “unifying candidate.”  And he points out that Clinton has been able to exploit this.  

He blames the Clintons for being “polarizing” and “slicing and dicing the electorate” but that is what the Dems have done for 50 years.  The problem is Mr. Herbert doesn’t like the fact that one Dem is doing this effectively against the other Dem he seems to prefer.  And he notes that this division may result in a Pyrrhic victory for the Democrat party regardless of who wins the nomination.  

The problem is that whichever Dem candidate emerges from the convention, and however bruised and damaged they may be, the GOP has fielded a very weak candidate too.  Conservatives loathe John McCain.  The Christian Right loathes John McCain.  And John McCain keeps reminding both that he loathes them right back!  In the last month, BHO raised 45 million and HRC raised 35 million.  McCain raised 15 million.  

Through March, the two major Dem candidates have raised 859 million in campaign funds.  John McCain has raised 80 million.  The two Democrats have raised 10.5 times more money than John McCain!  

Even a weak, bruised and damaged candidate who can outspend you 4 or 6 or 10 to 1 is going to wage a tough campaign.  And right now, John McCain is not raising money.  And I think that is because a significant majority of the GOP doesn’t like or support John McCain.  

I cannot predict the outcome of the general election.  Right now, either candidate could beat the other.  There are a lot of factors yet to consider to proclaim any one of the three a “sure thing.”  Nader and Barr and which of them  gets on the ballot in which states?  A few thousand votes in a few states can swing a state.  Fund raising.  Gaffes.  Illness.  Running mates.  The economy.  Iraq, Iran, China.  All these things are going to weave to together in an intricate tapestry.  

But we can count on one thing.  The press will continue to air more frequent and more vitriolic attacks against John McCain.  His response to the North Carolina GOP ad was pathetic and if he keeps that up, he will kill any remaining conservative support he might now hold.  John McCain will learn how much the MSM hates him in the next few months.  He will be fighting a Democrat, the MSM and he will almost certainly wage his campaign from a financial disadvantage.